Playbooks

Playbooks turn analysis into action. We use three simple, testable rulesets that avoid prediction and enforce repeatability. Each defines entries, exits, and invalidation up front.

1) Trend + Pullback

Idea: trade in the direction of the weekly trend using daily pullbacks to rising MAs/levels.

• Context: gold above a rising 26‑week average; TIPS falling or neutral; DXY neutral/weak.
• Entry: pullback to a prior breakout or rising 20–50D area with reversal signal on a daily close.
• Exit: partials into prior highs; trail below swing lows; full exit on daily close below invalidation.

2) Dollar Divergence

Idea: when DXY makes a marginal high but gold refuses to break down (higher lows), position for dollar mean‑reversion.

• Context: late‑stage DXY push with momentum waning; gold holds support.
• Entry: daily close reclaiming the prior breakdown level; confirmation from softer DXY.
• Exit: into resistance or when DXY re‑strengthens.

3) Regime Switch

Idea: during vol spikes/risk‑off, gold’s hedge properties improve—use options or staggered buys, then normalise as vol fades.

• Context: vol spike, credit spreads widening; policy/liquidity uncertain.
• Entry: staged buys at predefined drawdown bands.
• Exit: revert to trend framework when vol normalises and gold reclaims weekly levels.

Execution checklist

1. Confirm alignment: two of three drivers (TIPS/DXY/liquidity) should not contradict your playbook.
2. Pre‑define invalidation and size; one playbook per trade.
3. Review weekly; log setups, not feelings.

Bottom line: Simple playbooks beat complex narratives. Repeat, measure, refine.